Climate Change Risks: Adaptability

Africa is also particularly at risk due to its adaptability.

The UNEP predicts 'no continent will be struck as severely by the impacts of climate change as Africa'. This is partially down to increasing climate and rainfall variability, as well as an increased risk of natural disasters. The situation is exacerbated by Africa's relatively limited adaptive capacity. Brooks, Adgar and Kelly rank countries on their adaptive capacity based on eleven key indicators that exhibit a strong relationship with climate-related deaths. They found that 'the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa'. The relative lack of development and poverty that's widespread in Africa greatly exacerbates the climatic changes that will take place. This is very apparent in many common scenarios: when California declared a drought state of emergency in January they continued to import water with the 398km long Colorado River Aqueduct and enforced restrictions, whereas the Horn of Africa drought of 2011 resulted in tens of thousands of deaths. 

Colorado River Aqueduct, Source

The situation in areas of Africa are such that climate change is a threat to the survival of populations and long-term wellbeing. The effort to sustainably develop Africa, first through the MDGs and now the SDGs, is at risk from climate change. Africa's socio-economic situation makes it very difficult to combat such a risk, and if we do not act 'its population, ecosystems and unique biodiversity will all be the major victims of global climate change' (UNEP). Below is a summary of the risks that could cause such consequences:

Climate Change Risks: Rainfall Patterns

So having established that climate change is not Africa's fault but it will be the most affected, we have to establish how it will be affected.

One of the major effects on Africa due to climate change will be alterations in precipitation regime. In his paper for Environment International on what we know about changing rainfall patterns Mohammed Dore observes:

'That wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions.'

Applying this to Africa would mean increased variance over the majority, which has negative implications for water management, the tropical areas have higher rainfall and the drier have lower. In other words, the weather becomes more extreme. Allan et al. observes that in the 30% of wettest tropical areas rainfall will increase by 1.8%/decade, and in the driest 30% of tropical regions will decrease by 2.6%/decade (calculated using the GPCP with data from 1988-2008).

Unfortunately for dry or tropical regions (majority of SSA) rainfall decreasing 2.6%/decade does not mean water decreasing 2.6%/decade. De Wit and Stankiewicz studied what falling rainfall would mean for surface water in Africa, and it makes for fairly grim reading. Across Africa, a 10% fall in rainfall would reduce surface water by 17-50%. This nonlinear response is particularly worrying. The table below is an extract from their work, with Tulear, Mogadisu and Jenouba's perennial drainage all dropping to an alarming 0% of current levels with a 10% drop in precipitation.

De Wit and Stankiewicz

Unhealthy Relationship: Africa and Climate Change

In my first post I mentioned that climate change was a first world problem, but Africa is going to bear the brunt of the consequences. A recent joint publication by the medical journal The Lancet and UCL 'Managing the health effects of climate change' effectively illustrates this.

To briefly summarise, the paper concluded that climate change is and will be the biggest health risk of the 21st century. This risk will come in the form of changing disease patterns, heat waves, reduced food and water security, increased extreme weather events and large scale population migration resulting from changing rainfall and temperature distribution. All rather daunting.

Regarding how this affects Africa, a map on page 11 is particularly effective:

The Lancet and UCL

The first map adjusts countries sizes for their carbon emissions. USA and Europe dominate the map as well as significant inflation of China and Japan. South America shrinks dramatically and Africa is barely visible. The second map adjusts countries size for climate change induced mortality. Africa explodes. Central Asia also inflates. These two maps in conjunction illustrate the extent to which climate change is a first world problem that is going to affect Africa.

One of the conclusions from a 2008 publication by the British Medical Journal on the inequalities of climate change was that 'loss of healthy life years in low income African countries, for example, is predicted to be 500 times that in Europe'. And the benefits of industrialisation and pollution have been enjoyed by those outside of Africa. Seems a bit unfair really. I'm going to be looking at how Africa needs to deal with climate change, regarding water, to try and avoid the rather unpleasant map above.

Welcome

Welcome to 'First World Problems: African Climate Change Challenges', one of two blogs I'm starting. I'm completely new to the blogosphere; not only have I not written a blog before but also the amount I have read you could count on one hand. The aim of this blog is to explore the climate change challenges that Africa is facing (and will face) regarding water.

So how is this a first world problem? Human-induced climate change has been primarily caused by the First World through their strive to develop over the past few hundred years. The changes made to the Earth's climate is very much a Tragedy of the Commons scenario; no country can achieve much by themselves and so rely on others to make the progress. The result - significant alteration of the Earth's climate.

Africa's climate is set to change dramatically, a change that Africans have played next to no part in inducing. But Africa is set to be the continent hit hardest by the first world problem of climate change. This blog seeks to enhance my own, and spread to others, understanding of what these changes will mean to Africa and how to adapt to them.

Source